How to Calculate Implied Probability in Tennis Betting?

To calculate implied probability in tennis betting, convert betting odds into a percentage, revealing the bookmaker’s estimated likelihood of an outcome. It is crucial for comparing the implied probability against your own assessment of the “fair” probability. If the offered implied probability is lower than your estimated probability, you may have found a valuable betting opportunity. It can help you pick the best bets of the day. 

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability represents the conversion of betting odds into a percentage, reflecting the bookmaker’s assessment of an event’s likelihood. According to Robot enfejar, bookmakers calculate the probability using strategies such as statistical reviews and tactical analysis. 

Recognizing implied probability is vital for informed betting, enabling comparison with one’s own estimated probabilities to identify potential value bets. Calculating implied probability is an essential practice for every game you consider betting on. 

While a quick look at the odds provides some information, determining the actual likelihood of an event places the contest in a clearer context. Furthermore, by backing more ‘value bets’, you also enhance your chances of increasing your Return on Investment.

Methods to Calculate Implied Probability in Tennis Betting

Various odds formats exist, including Fractional, Decimal, and American/Moneyline odds. The method to calculate implied probability varies slightly based on the odds format.

Calculating Implied Probability from Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are popular because they are easy to understand and simplify potential winnings calculations. To calculate it from decimal odds, use the formula:

Implied Probability = (1 / decimal odds) x 100%

For example, if Leicester has decimal odds of 1.4 to win a match, the implied probability is:

Implied Probability = (1 / 1.4) x 100% = 71.43%

Therefore, this calculation suggests that bookmakers estimate Leicester’s win probability to be 71.43%.

Calculating Implied Probability from Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are usually used in the UK to show how much you can make depending on your bet size. Use the following formula to convert fractional odds to implied probability:

Implied Probability = [Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator)] x 100%

If the fractional odds for a draw are 4/1, the implied probability is:

Implied Probability = [1 / (1 + 4)] x 100% = 20%

Calculating Implied Probability from American Odds

Implied probability is calculated by converting betting odds into percentage form. The most common application is for a two-sided moneyline bet. Here is how to calculate implied probability from American odds, with separate formulas for negative and positive odds:

Negative Odds:

Probability = Odds / (Odds + 100) x 100

For example, if the odds are -120, the calculation is:

120 / (120 + 100) x 100 = 54.55%

Positive Odds:

Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100) x 100

For example, if the odds are +120, the calculation is:

100 / (120 + 100) x 100 = 45.45%

Implied Probability in Betting Strategy

Calculating implied probability helps to quantify the likelihood of different outcomes, providing a clearer context for betting decisions.

Identifying Value Bets 

Bookies often adjust their odds much lower than their actual estimation of them, and this gives them a higher profit margin. Comparing your assessment of a team or player’s chances against the implied probability derived from the odds helps identify discrepancies. 

Factoring in the Vig 

The vig, or house edge, is how sportsbooks make a profit. It’s built into the odds, so it’s not automatically visible on the moneyline. By calculating implied probabilities and adding them together, bettors can estimate the vigorish the bookmaker is charging. A lower vigorish means more value for the bettor.

Odds Calculator 

The Punters Page Odds Calculator helps you in choosing your preferred odds format (Decimal, Fractional, or American).

Final Words About Implied Probability in Tennis Betting 

Mastering the calculation of implied probability is a game-changer for any serious tennis bettor. It transforms raw betting odds into a clear percentage, revealing the bookmaker’s underlying assessment of a match’s potential outcomes.